The Largest Missile Battle in The History of Military conflicts: No ! The Iron Dome was not involved !!

Source : Gazeta.pl

Israel's Iron Dome air-defense system fires to intercept a rocket over the city of Ashdod on July 8, 2014. (AFP/Getty Images)

On the evening of October 1, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel. The Revolutionary Guard claimed it was a retaliation for the deaths of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, as well as high-ranking Iranian officers. Explosions were heard over Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley, and air raid sirens echoed throughout Israel. Citizens took shelter, and according to Israeli military radio, almost 200 missiles were launched from Iran. Reuters reported that some missiles were shot down over Jordan. Despite numerous online reports suggesting that the Iron Dome was defending Israel, Maciek Kucharczyk clarified, "A lot of posts about 'Iron Dome this and that...'. NO. The Iron Dome has no role in such an attack. It's not that layer of defense. For this type of threat, the Arrow system, with its relatively limited launchers, is the answer".

How Did Israel’s Air Defense Work During the Attack?

This event marked the first massive deployment of the Arrow systems. Previously, they had been used in combat but only against single missiles. Now, it seems they intercepted dozens in a single large wave. There will surely be many interpretations of the events from the night of Saturday to Sunday (April 13-14). Some may claim Israeli success, while others might argue for Iran’s. However, two facts are undeniable:

Iran conducted a large, complex, and, for the first time, direct missile and air attack on Israel.
There is no evidence of significant damage in Israel.

It appears that Israel's multi-layered air defense system performed very well, although not perfectly.

Layers of the Israeli air defense system

Arrow Systems Defending Israel

The stars of the Israeli defense effort were the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 missile defense systems, which had previously only been used in isolated incidents. The Iron Dome, known for intercepting simpler short-range missiles fired by Palestinian militants and Hezbollah, did not play a role in this battle. The Iron Dome is designed to defend against threats traveling up to 70 kilometers and moving relatively slowly, by missile standards. In contrast, Iran's attack involved medium-range ballistic missiles, capable of traveling over 1,000 kilometers, which fly at much higher speeds and altitudes, making them much more challenging to intercept.

File: Israeli soldiers walk near an Iron Dome defense system (L), a surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, the MIM-104 Patriot (C), and an anti-ballistic missile the Arrow 3 (R) during Juniper Cobra's joint exercise press briefing at Hatzor Air Base in central Israel, on February 25, 2016. (GIL COHEN-MAGEN/AFP)

The development of the Arrow systems began in the late 1980s, with significant support from the United States. This included both financial backing and possibly knowledge gained from Cold War-era American anti-ballistic missile programs (Spartan and Sprint missiles). During that period, ballistic missiles from Arab states and Iran were seen as one of the most serious threats to Israel. Iraq’s SCUD missile attacks during the 1991 Gulf War, and the poor performance of U.S. Patriot systems in attempting to intercept them, further emphasized the importance of the Arrow program.

The first successful test of the Arrow-1 missile was conducted in 1994, but it was deemed inadequate, leading to the development of the improved Arrow-2. After a series of tests, the first battery was officially commissioned in 2000. Building on these advancements, development of the Arrow-3 began in 2008, designed to intercept even more difficult targets, and it was officially deployed in 2017.

The Performance of the Arrow Systems

Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 are complementary and form the highest layers of Israel's missile defense shield. The Arrow-2 was initially designed to defend against short-range ballistic missiles, which were standard among Arab states three decades ago. Over time, it has been significantly upgraded and can now also intercept medium-range missiles like those used by Iran, which have ranges of over 1,000 kilometers. The Arrow-3 was specifically designed to intercept medium-range missiles during the exoatmospheric phase of their flight.

Israel releases very little information about the capabilities of these systems or how many of them are in use. It is confirmed that there are at least two Arrow-2 batteries, and possibly a third, and at least one Arrow-3 battery, with some reports suggesting there may be three. According to American documents regarding the construction of the second Arrow system base, one battery is said to consist of six launchers, each carrying four interceptors. In the best-case scenario, this means that Israel has around 150 Arrow 2 and 3 missiles ready to launch.

The Interception of Dozens of Missiles

Iran’s attack, involving around 120 ballistic missiles, posed a serious challenge for Israel’s defense. No missile defense shield is 100% effective, so it’s not surprising that a few Iranian missiles got through. Nonetheless, the results were still impressive, given the scale of the attack. The United States likely aided Israel, as Fox News reported that two U.S. Navy destroyers operating near the Israeli coast participated in the operation, shooting down a total of four Iranian ballistic missiles with SM-3 missiles and the AEGIS BMD system.

It’s also possible that Iran’s missiles were partially faulty. On Monday morning, The Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous Pentagon sources, reported that around half of the Iranian ballistic missiles intended for the attack suffered malfunctions—either they failed to launch or didn’t reach their targets. This would be a poor result but not entirely implausible. A failure rate of around 15% is not uncommon for ballistic or cruise missiles, especially those that have not been extensively tested. For example, the Tomahawk cruise missiles used by the U.S. during Operation Desert Storm had a similar failure rate.

Iran had never before used its medium-range missiles on such a scale, so they are relatively untested. The missiles used in the attack, including Emad, Ghadr, Kheybar-Shekan, and possibly Dezful, are all based on technology from North Korea's Nodong missile, itself an evolution of Soviet SCUD missiles.

If approximately 60 Iranian missiles functioned correctly, four were intercepted by the U.S., and several hit Nevatim and Ramon airbases (reportedly nine in total), it means that 45-50 missiles were likely intercepted by the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems. If the WSJ's claims of missile malfunctions are exaggerated, the number of interceptions would have been even higher, given the lack of evidence for more than a few hits.