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Pakistan on Track to Induct 75 J-31 Stealth Fighters from 2027, leaving India with limited options to retain its edge over its arch rival

Source : IgMp Bulletin

Pakistan on Track to Induct 75 J-31 Stealth Fighters from 2027, leaving India with limited options to retain its edge over its arch rival

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The Pakistan Air Force (PAF), led by Chief Zaheer Ahmad Babar, announced in January this year, that the groundwork has been laid for the acquisition of China’s Shenyang FC-31/J-31 stealth fighters. These advanced jets are set to enter the PAF’s fleet from 2027, a move that signals a substantial enhancement of Pakistan’s air capabilities. The J-31s are expected to gradually replace the PAF’s aging fleet of F-16s, marking a shift toward Chinese defense systems. Following the recent addition of 25 J-10CE Vigorous Dragons to its arsenal, Pakistan has been building a robust, modern air force with Chinese support.


Development of the J-31 Platform


The Shenyang J-31, or “Gyrfalcon,” is a twin-engine, single-seat, fifth-generation fighter still under development by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) and privately funded by SAC rather than the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). Originally designed for export, the J-31 was introduced in 2012 with a prototype making its first flight that October. Analysts note that it provides a low-cost alternative to Western jets, like the F-35, for countries without access to American technology.


At the Zhuhai Airshow in 2014, the J-31 airframe was showcased publicly. Initial performances showed potential, though observers noted aerodynamic limitations. In subsequent years, modifications have enhanced its stealth and operational range. The J-31 program began receiving government funding by 2018, aligning with increased interest from both the PLAAF and the PLA Navy, which aims to field a carrier-based variant. This evolved design, possibly dubbed the J-35, features radar enhancements and stealth capabilities suited for China’s Type 003 aircraft carrier.


Key Design Features of the J-31


The J-31, slightly smaller than China’s J-20, incorporates design features like forward-swept intake ramps, diverterless supersonic inlets (DSI), and contoured weapon bays to enhance stealth. Its composite fuselage, twin-engine setup, and oblique vertical stabilizers resemble design elements from both the F-22 and F-35. AVIC, the primary developer, claims the J-31 achieves low observability against a range of radar frequencies, while current prototypes employ Russian RD-93 engines. However, an upgrade to China’s WS-19 engine, capable of 12 tons of thrust, is anticipated to enable super-cruise capabilities.


The J-31 is outfitted with internal and external weapon bays for a payload of up to 8,000 kg, including medium-range missiles. Its maximum take-off weight of 28,000 kg is comparable to India’s upcoming Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).


Allegations of Intellectual Property Theft


Reports suggest that China’s development of the J-31 may involve data obtained from the Joint Strike Fighter program. A 2009 cyber-attack allegedly accessed sensitive information related to the F-35, though China has denied these claims. Analysts have called the J-31 a unique design that borrows aspects of Western stealth fighters.


Pakistan’s Participation in Turkey’s TAI Kaan Program


In August 2023, Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Güler indicated that Pakistan could join the Kaan fifth-generation fighter program, adding to existing collaborations between the two nations. Turkey’s Kaan program aims to field a fifth-generation stealth fighter by the 2030s, potentially with support from Pakistan’s National Aerospace Science and Technology Park (NASTP), launched to boost Pakistan’s aerospace innovation.


Why Pakistan Seeks FC-31/J-31 Fighters


Pakistan has ageing fleet of F-16s has seen its ups and downs because of political embargoes and spare disruptions by the USA. The 75 aircraft fleet began inducting in 1983, over 40 years back. They also have nearly 180 Dassault Mirage III and Mirage V of late 1960s vintage.

A Pakistani Air Force F-16 fighter

JF-17s have begun replacing the Mirage variants, and J-10s have begun augmenting the F-16s. Any future replacement of the F-16 class of aircraft would have to be by a fifth-generation fighter, or PAF may acquire more J-10s as an interim. So, basically Pakistan is eyeing at least 75 J-31 jets to fully replace their fleet of 75 F-16 jets. And it will be a smooth transition from a highly advanced 4th/4.5th generation single engine platform to a highly advanced 5th generation twin engine stealth platform, which will increase the firepower and calculus of the entire Pakistan Air Force.

A Pakistan Air Force J-10C fighter

Pakistan is conscious that India is pushing ahead with its fighter aircraft programs. The Pakistani military is in the driving seat. India’s AMCA may induct only around 2032. Pakistan wants to remain ahead of the curve. But if they don't act now, then India will definitely have an advantage in near future over them with indigenous stealth fighter and production line.


China is desperate for a partner in its J-31 program. Pakistan is the only contender currently, and therefore these moves by both sides. Many analysts in Pakistan are questioning putting all eggs in the Chinese basket.


The TAI Kaan TF program had to be started because the Americans forced Turkey out of the F-35 program. Turkey, too requires developmental support. Pakistan has access to Chinese technologies. Pakistan is also a market for the product. Turkish program could take longer. Yet Pakistan would prefer to have its foot on both sides.


The J-31 will be available earlier. It is likely to be cheaper. It would have the backing of the Chinese economy and technology.


One day it could be made in Pakistan through a transfer of technology. It will give better strike power and may change the dynamics in the subcontinent till India acquires its own. Pakistan has still to take the final call.


Affording a Fifth-Generation Aircraft


Pakistan is currently in a political mess. Its economy is at an all-time low. Foreign reserves have just risen to around $10 billion. The consumer inflation had jumped to 29.7 percent year-on-year in December 2023.


Elections are due. While the Army is in the driving seat, a fifth-generation aircraft won’t come cheap. Maintaining stealth is a complex and expensive exercise. A country that is surviving with largesse from the IMF and other donors would be under international scrutiny for a major arms deal of this magnitude.


Many analysts believed that the remark PAF Chief, made in January this year, was a trial balloon launched by him to gauge reaction of India and others. But the statement has been picked up and commented on by security experts around the globe for discussion and now it seems that the remark was not a joke, Pakistan is seriously considering the Chinese J-31 to have an early edge over India in terms of Air Power after a long time.


Although, given the economic condition of Islamabad, the actual possibility of such an acquisition remains a mystery. The J-31 development is still slow but can leap forward if Pakistan comes on board. In its desire to remain a dominant actor in the region, Pakistan is bound to spur a regional arms race, and India may have to review its options.


India’s Air Power Options and Challenges


India’s fighter development currently centers on the LCA Mk1A, a fourth-generation platform. The Mk1A is scheduled for induction by 2024, with the LCA Mk2—a more advanced variant—slated for 2028-29. India’s indigenous fifth-generation AMCA program is progressing, with a prototype flight expected by 2026-27 and operational induction by 2031-32. The program has been split into two variants: AMCA Mk1, with partial stealth, and AMCA Mk2, fully stealth-equipped.

Indian AMCA 5th Generation Stealth Fighter CGI by Kuntal Biswas

To expedite its fifth-generation capabilities, India could consider interim options. Procuring the U.S. F-35, for example, would provide a proven stealth platform, though political constraints, such as India’s use of Russia’s S-400 system, may hinder such an acquisition. Alternatively, India might explore the Russian Su-57 or the Su-75 Checkmate, though increased reliance on Russian technology could risk sanctions and affect critical U.S.-India defense collaborations, particularly in engine manufacturing.

Russian Sukhoi Su-75 Checkmate (Left) and Su-57 (Right) stealth fighter prototypes

As a last option, India could join Japanese or European fifth-generation programs, though these are still in development. The most viable approach remains accelerating the AMCA project, which would ensure India has an indigenous fighter capable of rivaling those of its neighbors.


For now, India’s AMCA project must stay on track to maintain parity with Pakistan and China in the evolving aerial combat landscape.


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